Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos Video Analysis & Prediction

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Keys to success for Miocic

Current win streak

Since losing to Dos Santos Miocic has been victorious in four fights on the trot finishing every opponent, three of those four wins have been in the opening round.

stoppage vs Hunt.gif

miocic power shots close range (arlovski) ko 2

Werdum charging Miocic 2

The only real bit of trouble he’s seen along the way is the knockdown against Overeem.

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The fashion in which Stipe responded was impressive, he immediately looked to respond quickly wrestling the momentum away from Alistair Overeem.

Stipe rallying.gif

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Overeem attempted an oblique kick which Stipe used to get the fight to the floor eventually finishing the contest via ground strikes.

Stipe takedown.gif

stoppage vs Overeem.gif

 

Positive moments from Dos Santos vs Miocic 1

Although he came up short Miocic gave JDS lots of trouble, there were several moments where Miocic shifted the momentum of the round by landing hard shots. Miocic also managed to land a takedown amongst what was mostly a boxing match in an octagon.

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vs jds right hand on exit.gif

vs jds counter right.gif

vs jds left hook on exit.gif

vs jds takedown.gif

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Stipe has made huge improvements since losing to JDS 3 years ago but there’s definitely areas that Stipe 1.0 uncovered which Stipe 2.0 can further exploit. In particular catching Dos Santos when attempting to exit and when JDS is squared up moving back.

 

Keys to success for Dos Santos

victory over Miocic

vs Miocic the w

In rematches, there’s always a slight psychological edge to the winner of the previous contest. Having already implemented an effective gameplan the victor has the benefit of forcing the opponent to adjust & bring something different to the octagon.

vs Miocic lunging hook.gif

vs Miocic counter left hook.gif

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vs Miocic left hook counter knockdown.gif

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Every round was pretty competitive in the first contest, what JDS did to swing them in his favour was stay active over the entire round. Stipe landed power shots in bursts, Dos Santos was continually working using his experience of five round fights to accumulate scoring shots rather than banking on a finish. This brings me on to the next variable.

Stipe landed power shots in bursts, Dos Santos on the other hand continually kept working using his experience of five round fights to accumulate scoring shots rather than bank on a finish. This brings me on to the next variable.

Dos Santos is effective over 5 rounds

Screenshot (3).png

Dos Santos has been in 6 fights scheduled for 5 rounds, from those 6 fights he has a record of 4-2. The losses both coming against Cain Velasquez, the only reason those two fights even made it to the 5th round is due to Dos Santos’s fantastic conditioning and will power. Excluding Cain Velasquez, Dos Santos is the best 5 round fighter in the division for me.

The statistics from JDS vs Miocic 1 on Fightmetric outlines the control JDS displayed over 25 minutes against Stipe.

JDS Fightmetric (3)

JDS Fightmetric.png

JDS attempted 110 more significant strikes over the course of the fight landing 34 more than Stipe Miocic, takedowns tied at one a piece. The outstanding stat is how well JDS mixed up his attack going high and low. Miocic mainly hunted the head causing his offense to become predictable, Junior kept Stipe guessing by jabbing and shooting lead rights to the body effectively. These stats show just how adept JDS is at controlling a championship fight.

 

Prediction 

Unlike the first fight, this won’t be Stipe’s first try at 5 rounds. He has the past fight with JDS under his belt as well as the following fight with Mark Hunt which was stopped in the final round. Even though I give the slight edge to Dos Santos if the fight goes into the championship rounds I expect Stipe to be far more aware in order to mitigate the rounds slipping away.

This version of Stipe Miocic is not the same one Dos Santos beat in 2014. Dos Santos for me isn’t getting any better if anything the knockout against Overeem may have taken something out of him. Stipe has recently excelled at setting traps for opponents and then making the most of the positional advantage. I sense the fight will follow a similar pattern as last time, however, I don’t see what Dos Santos can do better looking at his skill set. Stipe can expand further on the things he did well in the first meeting cause more damage and take Junior Dos Santos out.

Stipe Miocic wins by TKO.

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